**High US Tariffs Pose Risk to India’s Growth: Crisil**
*By Akash Pandey | Sep 27, 2025, 05:01 PM*
A recent report by Crisil Intelligence has highlighted that the high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods could pose a significant risk to India’s economic growth. According to the September report, these tariffs are expected to impact both Indian exports and investments adversely.
However, the report also points out that domestic consumption is likely to be a key driver of growth, supported by low inflation rates and recent interest rate cuts.
**Economic Indicators: GDP Growth and Inflation Projections**
India’s GDP growth reached a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the first quarter of FY25-26, up from 7.4% in the same quarter last year. Despite this, nominal GDP growth slowed down to 8.8% from 10.8% during the same period the previous year, as noted by Crisil Intelligence.
The report further forecasts that consumer price index (CPI) inflation will ease to 3.5% in the current fiscal year, down from last year’s 4.6%.
**Factors Influencing Inflation**
Robust agricultural growth is expected to help keep food inflation under control, although the full impact of recent excess rainfall is yet to be evaluated.
Additionally, lower crude oil prices and stable global commodity prices are anticipated to contain non-food inflation. These factors will play a crucial role in managing inflation levels in the coming months.
**Policy Outlook: RBI Likely to Implement One More Rate Cut**
On the monetary policy front, Crisil Intelligence expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to implement one more interest rate cut during this fiscal year, followed by a pause.
The RBI’s monetary policy committee had already reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points between February and June 2025. The central bank is now waiting to observe the full transmission of these earlier cuts before making further decisions on interest rates.
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Overall, while external risks such as US tariffs weigh on exports and investments, India’s growth is expected to remain resilient, driven largely by strong domestic consumption and favorable inflation dynamics.
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