As global temperatures rise, people are becoming less physically active, and this shift could lead to hundreds of thousands of additional premature deaths worldwide in the coming decades, a new study finds.
Researchers from a group of Latin American universities analyzed World Health Organization (WHO) global health surveys alongside temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit dataset at the University of East Anglia. Their analysis covered 156 countries between 2000 and 2022. They discovered that for each additional month with average temperatures above 82 degrees Fahrenheit, physical inactivity increased by 1.4 percentage points worldwide. This study was published in the journal *The Lancet Global Health*.
### Rising Temperatures and Health Risks
The findings suggest that rising temperatures could lead to between 470,000 and 700,000 additional deaths worldwide each year by 2050. The primary driver is hotter weather, which may discourage people from being physically active.
Currently, only about 65% of people worldwide get enough exercise. Physical inactivity already contributes to roughly 5% of global deaths, according to the WHO. The computer simulations used in the study indicate that rising heat will exacerbate this problem.
### Disproportionate Impact on Tropical Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Tropical low- and middle-income countries in regions such as the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa are likely to be hit the hardest. For example, in Somalia, deaths could reach as high as 70 per 100,000 people by 2050 due to extreme heat making outdoor movement uncomfortable and unsafe.
Many of these tropical areas are also the least equipped to manage the health effects of rising temperatures. These regions typically have higher levels of physical inactivity and often lack resources like air-conditioned spaces that enable people to stay active during extreme heat.
### Why Hot Weather Reduces Physical Activity
Hot weather discourages physical activity because movement becomes both psychologically and physically more challenging, leading people to reduce their activity levels. Women and older adults may feel these effects more acutely because their bodies often have a harder time cooling down.
Christian García-Witulski, lead study author and research fellow at the Lancet Countdown Latin America as well as a professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina, explained to ABC News:
> “What this tells us is that heat is not only a comfort issue, but that it is changing behavioral patterns at scale. And because physical inactivity is a key risk factor for non-communicable diseases, this implies relevant impacts for health and the economy.”
He added that a growing body of evidence links heat exposure to increased risks of cardiovascular strain and dehydration.
### Impact on High-Income Countries
Even high-income countries like the United States will not be immune. The study predicts the U.S. could see about 2.5 deaths per 100,000 people from heat-related physical inactivity by 2050, representing an increase from current relatively low levels.
> “Greater adaptive capacity, such as air conditioning, climate-controlled gyms, and indoor physical activity infrastructure, buffers the effect,” García-Witulski said. “However, this can also create a false sense of security, because air conditioning, while it protects from heat, tends to promote sedentary behavior.”
### Recommendations for Policymakers
The researchers urge policymakers to redesign cities to help people stay active even in hot conditions. They also recommend:
– Clearer public health messaging about how to exercise safely in high temperatures
– Expanded access to climate-controlled spaces where people can remain physically active
However, these solutions do not tackle the root cause of the problem: rising global temperatures.
### The Importance of Emissions Mitigation
García-Witulski emphasized the critical need for ambitious climate action:
> “Our results show that the difference between a low-emissions scenario and a high-emissions scenario is enormous. We go from 470,000 to 700,000 additional deaths worldwide, and from 2,400 to 3,680 million international dollars in losses. This underscores that ambitious emissions mitigation is essential to avoid a heat-induced transition toward sedentary behavior.”
As global temperatures continue to climb, addressing both climate change and public health will be vital to prevent the widespread health consequences linked to reduced physical activity.
https://abcnews.com/Health/hotter-temperatures-push-millions-sedentary-lifestyle-add-hundreds/story?id=131117326
