Bitcoin’s $100,000 Line Is No Longer a Victory Lap — It’s a Stress Test
Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence suggests that the current state of the market resembles the calm before a potential break. Stocks remain relatively steady, volatility has dropped to historic lows, and Bitcoin, despite its usual reputation for wild price swings, is showing little movement.
In his latest Bloomberg note, McGlone describes this phenomenon as “extreme complacency.” He highlights a chart pairing Bitcoin’s 50-week moving trendline with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500’s realized volatility — two metrics that hardly ever stay this tranquil for long. The VIX 50-week average currently sits around 19, and McGlone believes equities might soon “catch up” to this calm level, indicating that market turbulence could be closer than traders expect.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin — what McGlone terms “Do or Die” Bitcoin — has been hovering around the $100,000 level after failing to break above $110,000. This phrase neatly encapsulates the situation: Bitcoin either holds firm at this threshold and validates its value or it retreats toward its long-term average near $56,000.
Historically, every major Bitcoin cycle cools off at this precise stage, as the hype fades and price charts begin to show signs of “mean reversion.” Traders and investors should pay close attention to this critical juncture in Bitcoin’s trajectory.
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