**Morgan Stanley Strategist Warns Bitcoin Has Entered “Fall” Phase of Market Cycle, Advises Investors to Harvest Gains**
Morgan Stanley has issued a caution to cryptocurrency investors, signaling that Bitcoin has entered the “fall” season of its four-year market cycle. According to Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, the current phase is traditionally a time for investors to secure their profits before a potential downturn.
Speaking on the podcast *Crypto Goes Mainstream*, Galindo explained that Bitcoin typically follows a predictable pattern: three years of gains followed by one year of losses. He described the fall phase as “harvest time,” when the optimal strategy is to take profits. “We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo said. “Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains.”
However, the exact duration of this fall period is uncertain, making profit-taking timing a challenge for investors as they await the arrival of the next “winter” phase.
—
### Bitcoin Drops Below Key Technical Level, Signaling Bear Market
On November 5, Bitcoin experienced a notable price drop below $99,000, slipping past a crucial technical marker—the 365-day moving average. This indicator is widely used by analysts to assess market sentiment and direction.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, confirmed Bitcoin’s breach of this level. The move generated strong bearish signals, with many experts interpreting it as a sign of a technical bear market.
Bitrue research analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima told *Cointelegraph* that the dip below the 365-day moving average is significant, as it often heralds a bearish market phase with potential downward momentum.
—
### Crypto Market Liquidity Growth Stalls
Liquidity in the crypto market appears to be slowing, according to recent analysis by Wintermute, a major crypto market-maker. In a detailed blog post, the company identified three primary sources of liquidity: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and digital asset treasuries.
Wintermute’s data reveals that inflows from these sources have plateaued, indicating a halt in growth. This stagnation may contribute to future price volatility and overall market weakness.
The firm emphasized that lower liquidity often results in increased price swings, which poses risks for traders and investors alike.
—
### Institutional Interest in Bitcoin Grows
Despite the current bearish signals, institutional adoption of Bitcoin is on the rise. Michael Cyprys, head of the US brokers and asset managers division at Morgan Stanley Research, shared his insights during the same podcast.
Cyprys noted a shift among institutional investors, many of whom now regard Bitcoin as “digital gold” and a viable hedge against inflation and monetary debasement. He said, “Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or a macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement.”
He also highlighted how Bitcoin ETF products have simplified access for large investors, enabling smoother portfolio inclusion.
—
### Institutional Adoption Progresses Slowly but Steadily
Institutional investment into Bitcoin advances at a slower pace compared to retail, due to internal processes, risk committees, and approval workflows necessary for portfolio allocation changes. Long-term investment mandates further shape these decisions.
Nonetheless, the trend toward greater institutional involvement continues. Regulatory clarity and ETF infrastructure have lowered barriers to entry for major investors.
Currently, US spot Bitcoin ETFs hold over $137 billion in total net assets, as tracked by SoSoValue. By comparison, spot Ethereum ETFs have accumulated $22.4 billion.
—
### Conclusion
The combination of Bitcoin’s technical signals, stalled liquidity growth, and evolving institutional interest paints a complex picture for investors. While Morgan Stanley’s Denny Galindo advises harvesting gains during this “fall” phase of Bitcoin’s cycle, growing acceptance by institutions—as digital gold and an inflation hedge—could influence the market’s trajectory over the long term.
Investors should weigh these factors carefully and consider aligning their strategies with both the cyclical dynamics and shifting market fundamentals.
https://coincentral.com/morgan-stanley-warns-bitcoin-investors-to-take-profits-as-market-enters-fall-season/
