**High US Tariffs Pose Risk to India’s Growth: Crisil**
*By Akash Pandey | Sep 27, 2025, 05:01 PM*
A recent report by Crisil Intelligence has highlighted that the high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods could pose a significant risk to India’s economic growth. The September report points out that these tariffs are likely to impact both Indian exports and investments adversely.
However, despite these challenges, the report notes that domestic consumption is expected to remain a key growth driver for India, supported by low inflation and anticipated rate cuts.
**Economic Indicators: GDP Growth and Inflation Projections**
India’s GDP growth reached a five-quarter high of 7.8% in Q1 of FY25-26, up from 7.4% in the same quarter last year. However, nominal GDP growth slowed to 8.8% from 10.8% during this period, according to Crisil Intelligence.
On the inflation front, the report forecasts a decline in consumer price index (CPI) inflation to 3.5% this fiscal year, down from 4.6% last year.
**Factors Influencing Inflation Control**
Robust agricultural growth is expected to keep food inflation under control, although the full impact of excess rainfall is yet to be assessed. Additionally, lower crude oil prices and stable global commodity prices are likely to help contain non-food inflation.
These factors collectively are anticipated to play a crucial role in managing India’s inflation rates in the months ahead.
**Policy Outlook: RBI Likely to Implement One More Rate Cut**
Regarding monetary policy, Crisil Intelligence predicts that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will execute one more rate cut during the fiscal year, followed by a pause.
The RBI’s monetary policy committee had previously reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points between February and June 2025. The central bank is now expected to wait for the full transmission of these prior cuts before deciding on further interest rate changes.
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India’s economic growth faces uncertainties amid external trade barriers, but strong domestic consumption and controlled inflation offer reasons for cautious optimism moving forward.
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